ETH Advisor
decision as of the 19 Oct 2026 daily close data pulled 23:24 UTC · next close in — ETH now $2,448
verdict · no new entry

Watch. Trend up and price in the lower half of the range, no trigger yet.

Trend up and price in the lower half of its range — the context the rule likes. No trigger has fired yet.

+14.0% above the 150-day average
62 days is all the signal is old
last closed bar · 19 Oct 2026
$2,408
-0.1% on that close -1.6% 7d today so far $2,448 +1.6% · still open
30D 240D
$1,467 $2,095 $2,722 $3,350 exit below $2,071 Feb 2026 May 2026 Aug 2026 Oct 2026
On that close
$2,408
vs trend line
+14.0%
Rule said
HOLD
Regime would turn at
$2,071
ETH price 150-day trend line ±2% no-change zone regime threshold
direction trend call
UP +14.0% from the average
Price is above its 150-day average and the signal turned 62 days ago.
market heat washed out
24 / 100 · Cutler RSI(14)
Neither overbought nor oversold. This says nothing about direction on its own.
participation ordinary
0.9× last 7 days · vs the 30-day average
How much ETH changed hands. That is turnover, not a read on who was buying.

If tomorrow closes at…

the rule reacts to the daily close, nothing else
Most constructive TRIGGER FIRES · NOT AN ENTRY
Price stays in the lower half of the range, the trend holds, and the trigger fires. That changes the setup status, not the evidence: this trigger has never been shown to make money after costs.
Base case NO NEW ENTRY
Watching is the decision. Nothing to initiate.
My view is wrong MISSED
Price leaves the discount behind without ever completing the setup.
No instruction for what you hold

This decision is about entering, not about an existing position.

Position ceiling100% of a normal position
Regime would turn at$2,071
Room to that line -14.0%
Do not initiate

There is no entry here that the rule will stand behind.

Entry triggernone validated
Distance from average +14.0%
Signal age62 days
A daily close under the line flips the regime.

That is the regime threshold — the level at which the rule itself changes state. It is not a forecast that price will reach it, and it is not the invalidation of this particular decision.

Setup invalidation: $2,383. Specific to this decision, separate from the regime threshold above.

This decision does not say what would change it. Nothing is invented to fill the gap.

Regime would turn at $2,071
From here -14.0%
Signal age62 days

What happened in moments like this

days like today · +14% over the 150-day trend · Cutler RSI(14) 24 · 1.9%/day volatility · 42% below the 1-year high
up 20% or more up 10% to under 20% less than 10% either way down 10% to under 20% down 20% or more
after 7 days 30 similar episodes
122331
up 20% or more 1 (3%) up 10% to under 20% 2 (7%) less than 10% either way 23 (77%) down 10% to under 20% 3 (10%) down 20% or more 1 (3%)
17 of 30 ended higher · 57% worst of these 30 · -24.1%
after 30 days 30 similar episodes
521445
up 20% or more 5 (17%) up 10% to under 20% 2 (7%) less than 10% either way 14 (47%) down 10% to under 20% 4 (13%) down 20% or more 5 (17%)
14 of 30 ended higher · 47% worst of these 30 · -34.3%
after 90 days 30 similar episodes
102846
up 20% or more 10 (33%) up 10% to under 20% 2 (7%) less than 10% either way 8 (27%) down 10% to under 20% 4 (13%) down 20% or more 6 (20%)
13 of 30 ended higher · 43% worst of these 30 · -60.8%
Background, not a buy signal — how solid are these numbers

Each row counts episodes — blocks of similar days, measured from the first day of each block. Their forward windows still overlap, so read them as rough observations, not separate bets. The worst column is a single historical extreme, not an estimate of your downside: it tells you such a loss has happened, not how likely it is.

How much to trust each part

Trend filter Tested over nine years

Measured across BTC, ETH and SOL over nine years. The one thing here that holds up.

Entry timing No validated model

No entry trigger has been validated out-of-sample. There is no validated entry here, because none has been established.

Price forecast Not provided

No price target, no probability. The forecasting model was measured against a coin flip, lost, and was switched off.

trend evidence ≠ entry evidence ≠ prediction

Advisor, not autopilot. No order is placed from this page. 3,351 Binance daily closes · the forming candle is never used
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